Trump Claimed Iran’s Nukes Are Gone; Experts Say They Are About To Explode

New Delhi: Twelve days of war. Three direct U.S. strikes. One bill. One signature. That is all it took to change the tone in Tehran. Iran’s parliament passed a new law last week. President Masoud Pezeshkian signed it into force. With that, Iran began cutting ties with the world’s nuclear watchdog – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

This is not merely another diplomatic rebuke. It is the beginning of a different phase. One that nuclear experts say could lead somewhere far more dangerous.

After the United States dropped bunker-busting bombs on Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, Washington called it a success. President Donald Trump claimed Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was obliterated. But those who have tracked nuclear programmes for decades are warning something very different. The blasts may not have stopped Iran. They may have hardened its resolve.

The inspections are gone. The trust is thinner than ever. What comes next is anyone’s guess, but signs are emerging.

Iran Eyes the Same Path North Korea Took?

Iran is now allegedly considering quitting the global nuclear agreement that is held since 1968 – the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The last country to walk out of the NPT was North Korea. And everyone knows what happened next.

Nuclear policy experts say Iran may be inching towards the same route quietly, carefully and possibly with more strategic clarity than before. The NPT allows countries to build peaceful nuclear programmes. But it also gives inspectors the right to enter sites, check materials and track enrichment. Without that, the line between energy and weaponry vanishes. The difference becomes technical, not moral. That worries nearly every neighbour in the region.

John Erath, who works with the Centre for Arms and Non-Proliferation, explained it in simple terms. Iran can enrich uranium, spin centrifuges and do everything but attach a warhead while still claiming to follow the treaty. That is the loophole. And it’ is big enough to drive a nuclear arsenal through.

Now with inspections suspended and the IAEA kept at arm’s length, the international community is left watching shadows. What Iran chooses to do behind closed doors might never be seen until it is too late.

The JCPOA Is a Ghost of the Past

There was a deal once. A real one. The JCPOA. Signed in 2015 between Iran and several world powers, led by the United States. It put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities. It opened facilities to global monitoring. In return, Tehran got economic relief. Sanctions were lifted. Oil flowed. Diplomacy had a moment.

Then came 2018. President Trump walked out of the agreement, calling it “defective to its core”. The sanctions snapped back into place. Trust collapsed. Iran began stepping away from its commitments, one centrifuge at a time.

Since then, talks have come and gone. None have led anywhere. The window that once looked open is now a wall. Trump himself tried to bring Iran back into talks again. Nothing moved.

What Happens If Iran Goes Quiet?

Nuclear experts say this is the moment to watch. Not when the bomb is built, but when the lights go off. The moment inspections stop. The moment legal frameworks are frozen. That is when programmes become invisible.

Iran might keep enriching uranium. It might keep its scientists working. It might decide to stay just inches from assembling a weapon – close enough to frighten its rivals, but far enough to deny intent.

Howard Stoffer, a former senior UN official, sees this as a turning point. He says Tehran could use this moment to cross into a “grey zone”. Not peace. Not open war. A space where it can do everything except test a device and still deny nuclear ambitions.

Iran has said it will “act in its own interest”. That leaves the NPT in limbo. That leaves the IAEA in the dark. And that leaves the world guessing.

The Message of the Bombs May Have Hit Policy

What is unfolding now did not start with the war. But the airstrikes sped things up. Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan were symbols. The underground vaults, the uranium stockpiles and the spinning machines – all were part of Iran’s long and complicated nuclear story. The attacks did not erase that story. They rewrote its next chapter.

What the world sees now is a country wounded but defiant. Iran is tightening its fists, not opening its hands. Pulling out of global frameworks. Locking doors. Shutting windows. The programme may go underground. But the consequences could echo far above the surface.

And as global powers watch Tehran drift from agreements and block access, the question lingers longer than before – how close is close enough?