Stock market this week: US economic data, IPOs, FIIs top triggers that may dictate Dalal Street

Indian stock markets continued their upward momentum for a fourth straight session on Friday, June 27, with benchmark indices — the Sensex and Nifty 50 — posting solid gains supported by broadly positive global trends.

The Sensex ended the day 303 points, or 0.36%, higher at 84,058.90, while the Nifty 50 advanced 89 points, or 0.35%, to close at 25,637.80. Gains were seen across the board, with the BSE Midcap index climbing 0.38% and the Smallcap index rising 0.54%.

Over the past four sessions, the Sensex has surged by 2,162 points, marking an increase of nearly 3%, while the Nifty 50 has also registered a similar gain of close to 3%.

“Markets edged higher on Friday, extending the ongoing uptrend and ending the session with modest gains. After a flat start, the Nifty gradually moved up during the first half, followed by a range-bound phase until the close. It eventually settled near the day’s high at 25,637.80. The recent geopolitical stability has improved risk sentiment, as seen in the broad-based market participation. Moreover, positive developments around potential trade agreements could further strengthen the bullish bias. We continue to recommend a “buy on dips” strategy on the index, with an emphasis on selective stock picking for better opportunities,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Indian stock market trends

Although the week began on a cautious note, indices picked up momentum midweek as concerns over the Iran-Israel conflict subsided and global risk appetite strengthened. As a result, benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex ended the week close to their highs, settling at 25,637.80 and 84,058.90, respectively.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said on Nifty outlook, ” “The Nifty continued to move higher as investor confidence remained strong. With no major resistance seen before 25,750–25,800, the index may continue its upward trajectory. However, the rally might not be sharp, and it could take time to reach the 25,800 mark. A buy-on-dips strategy appears more appropriate at current levels, following the sharp rise over the past few days. On the downside, support is placed at 25,500; a break below this level could lead to consolidation.”

On the Bank Nifty outlook, brokerage firm Bajaj Broking said, “Bank Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a sizable bull candle with a higher high and higher low signaling strength and continuation of the up move. The index in the process rallied to a fresh all time high. Given the recent breakout from the consolidation zone of 56,000–53,500, the implied pattern target projects an upside potential towards 58,000-58,500 marks over the coming sessions. This projection is further supported by bullish price structure and momentum indicators. On the downside, key support base has been recalibrated to the 56,000–55,500 region, which marks a confluence of technical factors—namely, the 20-day EMA and the recent swing lows of last week.”

Here are the key triggers for stock markets in the coming week:

U.S. tariffs

Although market sentiment has improved, concerns remain about possible tariff hikes, especially with U.S. tariffs set to resume on July 9. Trade agreement updates will continue to be a key focus. The U.S. President recently shared on social media that a deal has been signed with China and hinted at a possible agreement with India, though specific details are still unclear. Markets will closely watch for further clarity on these developments.

U.S. economic indicators

July 3 will be a major day for U.S. economic indicators, with the release of Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate for June. These figures will provide a comprehensive view of the labor market’s strength and its implications for monetary policy. Also scheduled for release on the same day is the S&P Global Services PMI, which reflects service sector activity and consumer sentiment.

Israel-Iran war

The benchmark index signaled robust investor confidence, supported by the perceived stability of the Middle East ceasefire, which helped alleviate fears of possible supply chain interruptions.

However, investors will keep a close monitor on Israel-Iran update as it is likely to dictate market movement in the upcoming week.

IPO Activity

The primary market will witness opening of seven new initial public offering (IPOs) in the coming week – 2 mainboard and 5 SME IPOs. In the mainboard segment, Crizac Limited IPO will open for subscription on July 2, whereas Travel Food Services IPO will open for bidding on July 3.

FII Activity

The Indian equity indices continued their upward momentum for the second straight week ending June 27, supported by a decline in crude oil prices due to reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, consistent foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows, a positive monsoon outlook, and easing trade tensions ahead of the approaching deadline.

“ Key catalysts like the ceasefire in the Middle East and optimism on easing trade tensions ahead of the deadline have cleared the clouds in the minds of investors. After consecutive days of selling, FIIs have turned net buyers in the domestic market, contributing to improved market stability in the near term,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Crude Oil Prices

Oil prices remained stable as traders balanced the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran nuclear negotiations with reports suggesting that OPEC might continue its streak of significant production hikes.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw slight gains, ultimately closing above $65 per barrel after fluctuating between positive and negative territory during the session.

Technical View

According to Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, believes that with the Nifty ending its consolidation phase through a decisive breakout, we now expect a gradual move toward the all-time high i.e. 26,277.35.

” However, the gap area around 25,800 could cause a temporary pause. In the event of a pullback, the 24,800–25,200 zone—which previously acted as resistance—is likely to offer strong support?

The banking index has resumed its bullish trajectory, supported by renewed buying interest in major private sector banks and intermittent strength in PSU banks. We anticipate the index to gradually advance toward the upper trendline of the broadening formation around 58,200, followed by a potential move to the psychological mark of 60,000,” Mishra said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.