Gold price outlook: Is yellow metal poised for a rise this week amid India-US trade negotiations? Expert weighs in
Gold price outlook: Gold Futures on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) closed flat after Friday, 4 July’s market session. The futures jumped after opening on Friday due to a weak US dollar as the US House passed President Donald Trump‘s tax cut bill.
The MCX gold futures for the August 2025 contract closed flat or ₹2 per 10 grams lower at 96,988 points on Friday, compared to 96,990 points at the previous commodity market close. The precious yellow metal hit an intraday high of ₹97,131 per 10 grams during the intraday session.
On the global gold front, the Comex gold was up 0.11% or by $3.60 per ounce to $3,346.50 per ounce as of the trading session on 5 July 2025, according to official data. The commodity hit an intraday high of $3,355 per ounce on Friday.
All eyes are on US President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause deadline on 9 July 2025 as investors await nations to finish the final stretch of their trade negotiations. Last week, Trump also told reporters on board Air Force One that he has signed letters to 12 nations outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the Western nation.
If India does not negotiate a trade deal with the United States, they will face a tariff rate of 26% on top of the baseline 10% tariff rates on all imports to the United States.
Gold’s safe haven appeal in focus?
Safe-haven gold prices on the global markets rose to near $3,340 per ounce on Friday, 4 July 2025, and ended the first week of July with gains due to concerns about the US fiscal deficit and tariff uncertainty.
In situations like these, market investors withdraw their money from high-risk assets like equity and derivatives markets in search of safe-haven investments like government treasuries and gold, which in turn increases the demand for them in the open market.
However, gold’s upside was capped by strong US labour market data, which noted that 147,000 jobs were added to the US economy in June 2025. The US unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, compared to its earlier level of 4.2% in May 2025.
Gold Price Outlook
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, expects that the commodity market investors will monitor the gold prices carefully as the 9 July tariff pause deadline nears.
Even though the US economic calendar is ‘relatively light,’ the Trump administration’s formal letter to foreign nations outlining the tariff rates is expected to be the investors’ focus for any potential market uncertainties next week.
The traders will also look at the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes to gain further clarity on the central bank’s policy direction for the rest of the year.
The commodity expert expects the MCX Gold for the August contract to find a ‘good’ support near the ₹96,000 per 10 grams level with a “positive” outlook, while the US-based Comex gold is expected to trade in the range of $3,300 to $3,400.
Read all stories by Anubhav Mukherjee
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
