Climate Change is Increasing Threat From Heat Waves in the UK

(Bloomberg) — Global warming is rapidly increasing the number of hot summer days in the UK and intensifying heat waves, with an outside chance that temperatures could eclipse the records of Mediterranean capitals like Rome.

Almost three years ago, the UK breached 40C (104F) for the first time on record. Now a new Met Office study shows that temperature — and even hotter conditions — are 20 times more likely to occur than in the 1960s.

“We are seeing the number of hot days, the length of heat waves and that intensity increasing,” said Gillian Kay, a senior scientist with the UK Met Office and a lead author of the research.

Kay and a team of scientists from the Met Office’s Hadley Centre used a global climate model that creates simulations of plausible summer temperatures under current climate conditions. Those simulations show a very remote chance that temperatures in southern England could hit 46.6C, approaching Europe’s all-time high of 48.8C.

The simulations were based on existing levels greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, which Kay said could prove to be moving targets.

“With increasing greenhouse gases, we would be expecting even more intense and more frequent heat waves,” she said.

High pressure over the UK is currently dragging in stream of hot air that’s forecast to bring heat wave conditions to London and eastern England later this week. Daytime highs will exceed 30C by Saturday, as air funneled in from high above Greenland warms as it rapidly sinks.

High-pressure patterns have set up many of the UK’s most damaging heat events, including the infamous summer of 1976, when temperatures remained above 28C for more than a fortnight. The study shows that in today’s climate such heat wave conditions could persist for a month or more. 

The increasing duration and intensity of heat waves like the one that hit in 2022 — and was linked to more than 2,800 deaths — highlights the urgency for preparation across the UK, Kay said.

“We saw serious effects on people’s health, particularly those in more vulnerable sections of society,” she said. “We saw wildfire even in urban centers. There was disruption to the roads, and the rail network, with melting Tarmac and buckling rails.”

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