Gold price outlook: MCX gold rate likely to hold gains next week, may face resistance near ₹98,800 per 10 gms level
Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) advanced on Friday, mirroring gains in the international bullion market, supported by a weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, silver prices remained largely unchanged.
MCX gold rate rose by ₹542, or 0.56%, to close the session at ₹98,015 per 10 grams. On a weekly basis, MCX gold prices registered a modest gain of 0.20%. In contrast, MCX silver prices edged down 0.01% to settle at ₹1,12,935 per kg. Over the week, silver price declined marginally by 0.05%, after touching a record high of ₹1,15,136 per kg earlier in the week. This followed a sharp 4.2% rally in the previous week.
In the international bullion market, gold prices strengthened as safe-haven demand increased amid a softer US dollar and persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Spot gold price rose 0.41% to $3,352.13 per ounce, while US gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $3,358.30 per ounce. However, on a weekly basis, Comex gold declined 0.17%.
“Gold prices posted its first weekly loss in three weeks, as stronger-than-expected US economic data reduced the immediate need for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.
“Retail sales in the US rebounded in June, and weekly jobless claims fell to a three-month low, both pointing to underlying economic strength despite prevailing tariffs,” he added.
Reinforcing this sentiment, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler indicated that it would be appropriate to maintain interest rates at current levels for some time. However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated expectations of two rate cuts later this year.
Despite the mixed policy signals, safe-haven demand for gold remained firm amid trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
“President Trump’s announcement of plans to notify over 150 trade partners of tariff rates, combined with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East, have continued to support gold’s appeal as a safe asset,” Trivedi noted.
Market participants are anticipating two US Fed rate cuts by the end of this year, totalling 50 basis points, according to Reuters.
Gold prices thrive during economic uncertainty, and lower interest rates boost investor demand as it is a non-yielding asset.
Gold Price Outlook
Looking ahead, gold prices are likely to be influenced by a series of economic data releases and monetary policy decisions from key global central banks.
In the US, upcoming data includes flash S&P Global PMIs, durable goods orders, and both existing and new home sales. On the global front, monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and the Central Bank of Turkey will be closely watched.
According to Trivedi, support for MCX gold prices (August futures) is seen around ₹97,200 per 10 grams level, whereas resistance is seen near ₹98,800 level.
“The outlook for gold prices is flat-to-positive for the next week,” Trivedi said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
