Why Russia’s Embrace Of Taliban Could Corner India In A Strategic Trap | World News

New Delhi: In Moscow, a quiet move has shaken old certainties. Russia became the first major world power to formally recognise the Taliban regime in Afghanistan – a decision that could redraw the lines of diplomacy in South and Central Asia.

It has been nearly four years since the Taliban stormed Kabul. Their flag now flies from the same palace once guarded by NATO-trained troops. For most of that time, world capitals kept their distance. Many whispered. None stepped forward. Until now.

Russia’s nod changes the game.

For the Taliban, it is a breakthrough they have long chased. For India, it triggers a fresh diplomatic puzzle. For years, New Delhi walked a delicate tightrope – engaging without endorsing. Helping without recognising. Now that buffer is thinning.

Moscow did not just acknowledge the Taliban. It opened doors. Energy, railways, agriculture, border security – areas once frozen now have a Russian stamp of approval.

In Kabul, officials hailed the move as bold. Across the region, analysts saw a message – isolation is not forever.

But critics are raising alarms. They warned that recognition could embolden an oppressive regime. Women’s rights groups called it a betrayal. More than two years after girls were banned from secondary school, the optics are hard to ignore.

Still, for Russia, the calculus is raw. This is not about moral leadership. It is about leverage and geography.

After the chaos of the U.S. withdrawal in 2021, Afghanistan did not just fall to the Taliban. It opened up for influence. China sent signals. Iran stayed cautious. Russia waited and now moved. It knows the terrain. In the 1980s, it lost blood and pride in the same hills. But this is not that war.

Now, the Kremlin, they say, eyes Afghanistan not as a battlefield but as a buffer. It fears the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP or ISIS–K), a regional branch of jihadist group Islamic State (IS) active in Central and South Asia. It watches instability in Central Asia. The experts say it wants a foothold near the underbelly of American power. Recognising the Taliban is less a gamble, more a guardrail.

In Beijing, the mood is pragmatic. China has invested. It wants mineral access and border security. It welcomed Russia’s decision without blinking. If a new regional bloc is forming, China wants in early.

That leaves India with a hard choice.

It has spent over $3 billion in Afghanistan on roads, dams and a gleaming new parliament building. It trained Afghan soldiers, hosted students and supported civilian governance. But all of that was under a different flag. When Kabul fell, New Delhi lost a strategic partner. Now, it is stuck between legacy and leverage.

For the moment, India continues its “engagement without recognition” policy. It speaks to Taliban officials quietly, helps with humanitarian aid and avoids ceremony. But that window, they experts believe, is narrowing. As Russia and China build formal ties, India risks being the odd one out.

They say India may be forced to recalibrate. “You cannot ignore a regime that controls geography, especially one that sits between Central Asia and the Arabian Sea,” they say.

Russia, according to them, sees the Taliban as part of Afghanistan’s organic structure. “They are betting that talking to power is smarter than waiting for change,” the experts say.

But India’s dilemma runs deeper. It has close ties with Washington and the European Union (EU). As per the experts, formal recognition of the Taliban could rattle those bridges. Yet doing nothing may allow China and Pakistan to dominate the space India once occupied.

Former diplomat Jayant Prasad points to quiet backchannel work. He confirms India has kept lines open – even maintained a diplomatic presence in Kabul. But it has not gone public.

In May, External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar held a rare call with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. The readout spoke of friendship, cooperation and development. It did not mention recognition. Yet the symbolism was not lost.

A veteran scholar of international affairs believes India must stay nimble. “This is not about liking the Taliban. It is about managing interests. You cannot let geography become a trap,” he adds.

He warns that formal recognition, if it comes, must be on India’s terms – not as a reaction to China or Russia, but in service of India’s long-term strategy.

For now, the Taliban wait. Their diplomats roam the region. Their spokesmen issue press statements. Their rules on women, media and dissent remain unchanged.

But something has shifted. The silence is breaking. With Russia’s step, the ice around the Taliban’s isolation has begun to melt. The world may not be ready to accept them but it is no longer walking away either.

India will have to decide how long it can watch from the sidelines before the entire chessboard gets reset.