Nvidia share price inches close to record high. Will the stock rally continue?
Nvidia’s share price has rebounded sharply from its April lows, recording an over 60% rally to record high levels above $158 mark for the first time earlier this week. For the year, the chipmaker has gained 28% and is up 17% on a year-to-date basis.
This sharp rally has pushed Nvidia to reclaim the title of the world’s most valuable stock, with a market capitalisation of $327 trillion, beating Microsoft’s $311 trillion. Apple remains at a distant third with $270 trillion in m-cap.
What’s powering Nvidia’s stock?
After some turbulence in the first half of the year amid fears of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company DeepSeek and Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, Nvidia shares have come unscathed, led by strong demand for its AI chips.
Big tech companies are buying extra capacity early to handle AI tasks, which is increasing Nvidia’s GPU sales and service income, according to analysts.
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. are projected to put about $350 billion into capital expenditures in their upcoming fiscal years, up from $310 billion in the current year, according to the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Those companies account for more than 40% of Nvidia’s revenue.
Moreover, the launch of the Blackwell GPU line and preview of the next-gen Rubin architecture have fueled investor excitement for continued product leadership, said Dharan Shah, Founder, Tradonomy.AI.
The company’s latest earnings, announced at the end of March, also reinforce the interest in Nvidia’s stock. The company reported revenue for the first quarter ended April 2025 of $44.1 billion, up 12% from the previous quarter and up 69% from the year-ago period.
Despite the China export curbs, Nvidia forecasted sales of $45 billion, plus or minus 2%, in the second quarter, only slightly below analysts’ average estimate of $45.90 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG, said a Reuters report. That would imply growth of about 50% from a year earlier.
Nvidia’s latest AI accelerators, growing customer base and strong financials, make investors bullish on the stock. “Strong revenue forecasts and management indication that China export curbs would have a smaller impact than feared, thanks to customer pre-buying of AI chips ahead of restrictions, drove Nvidia to an all-time high $3.77 trillion market cap on June 26,” said Shah.
Trading at about 36× forward earnings—above peers like AMD at 22× but well below its own 80× peak—Nvidia commands a premium multiple justified by rapid growth, believes Tradonomy.AI’s founder.
He added that next-gen Rubin chips, an expanding software ecosystem, and continued margin resilience should sustain growth, although geopolitical export controls and macroeconomic headwinds remain key risks.
However, some analysts see increased competition and its lofty valuations as key risks going ahead, which they believe could impact its upside in the medium term.
Nvidia Share: Technical outlook
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment, said that Nvidia has broken out of a bullish 153-day cup and handle pattern at 149, signalling a strong continuation trend on the tech charts.
“The recent two-day decline is just a healthy pullback, likely retesting the breakout zone before its next leg up. A fresh breakout above 158.85 will be crucial, as it could trigger strong buying momentum and propel the stock towards the 175 level in the short term. Traders should watch for volume confirmation to ride this trend confidently and manage risk wisely,” Jain added.
As of Thursday, July 3, Nvidia stock was trading around $157.34 apiece in the pre-market trade.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
