Gujarat Elections: AAP’s Visavadar Win A Wake-Up Call For BJP, Trouble For Congress? Explained | India News
Traditionally speaking, by-elections tend to favour the ruling party, which allows it further to solidify its influence and power in the state. However, Gujarat’s 2025 by-polls produced mixed results for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Aam Aadmi Party’s Gopal Italia registered a landslide win in Visavadar, while the saffron party successfully retained its seat in Kadi.
Although Kadi’s win is significant for the BJP, the spotlight is firmly on AAP’s breakthrough in Visavadar. The outcome reflects the dynamic political landscape of the constituency. As AAP bagged the Visavadar seat, the party’s national convenor, Arvind Kejriwal, is touring the state to connect with voters.
AAP leader Gopal Italia won in Gujarat’s Visavadar assembly by-poll, defeating BJP’s Kirit Patel by 17,554 votes after 21 rounds of counting. Italia secured 75,942 votes while Patel received 58,388 votes. Nitin Ranpariya of Congress stood at 5,501 votes.
‘AAP-BJP History In Visavadar’
Visavadar is an Assembly seat in Gujarat where the BJP has not marked its victory for a long time. Gujarat is the home ground of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the BJP has retained the Chief Minister seat in the state for over two decades now.
The last two leaders of Visavadar have had a rocky journey. In 2017, Congress’s Harshadkumar Ribadiya won the seat. However, he joined hands with the saffron party in 2022.
In 2022, the AAP candidate Bhupendra Bhayani defeated the BJP in Viasavadar, but he too later joined hands with the ruling party, leading to the by-elections being held in 2025.
‘AAP Model Vs Gujarat Model’
The Aam Aadmi Party’s victory in the bypolls shows that while the BJP has retained its vote share, the base of Congress is shifting towards the AAP. Political experts are of the opinion that the AAP still has a long way to go in the state to gain power.
Dr. Binit Kumar Sinha, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Delhi, shared his viewpoint on the possible resurgence of Kejriwal at a national level. He explained that a by-poll loss cannot be a verdict on the ruling government and can’t make waves for the winning party.
“Local dynamics (caste, candidate, local issues, anger with the BJP) matter more than national mood. The latest full-vote percentage for AAP in the Gujarat Assembly remains 12.92% from December 2022. Overall, in the bypolls, AAP delivered a strong performance in Visavadar but was almost non-existent in Kadi,” he said.
Dr Sinha further added, “In the same bypoll election, Congress collapsed to just 3.9% of the vote. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Gujarat, the AAP received only 2.69% of the total votes, contesting in two out of the 26 seats as part of the INDI Alliance. Kejriwal’s legal issues aren’t over yet. So, we can not say it’s a resurgence.”
‘Congress To Rework Its Strategy’
Manish Doshi, Gujarat Congress Spokesperson, said that the grand old party certainly needs to strengthen its organisation, make improvements, and bring in new people. He emphasised that it needs to fight on all fronts because the “opponent is strong”.
“Congress has started this process, and our leader Rahul Gandhi has initiated organisational work from Gujarat,” he added.
‘Opposition In Gujarat’
When asked how he thinks this bypoll outcome will impact the dynamics of the opposition in Gujarat?
Doshi replied that while the results were not in Congress’s favour, they are bound to have a large impact, and continued, “We’ve seen how the BJP’s divisive tactics played out in the elections. That said, our recent results weren’t great, and we need to take a hard look at what went wrong and get stronger for the next round.”
‘Shift In Gujarat Politics Coming?’
Dr. Sinha explained that it is too early to call it the beginning of a larger shift in Gujarat’s political landscape; however, he added that this bypoll victory is more than symbolic.
“It suggests a crack in the BJP’s invincibility and the emergence of AAP as a third force in Gujarat. The next 1-2 years will be key. BJP’s Gujarat dominance has been near total — ever since 1995. Even Modi ji’s national rise started from here. Congress has been declining steadily. But now, AAP is replacing Congress as the challenger, at least in some pockets,” he said.
On the other hand, the Congress Spokesperson said that the people of Gujarat are upset with the BJP. “The people of Gujarat are facing immense difficulties, whether it’s unemployment, inflation, women’s safety, or farmers’ problems – the BJP government has failed on all fronts,” he said.
‘Lessons For BJP After By-Poll Results’
Dr. Sinha explained that grassroots dissatisfaction can bubble up, especially if issues like unemployment, agrarian distress, or local corruption are ignored. He added that regular performance reviews of local representatives and the rotation of leadership are needed.
“Treat this bypoll result as a warning shot and engage in honest introspection, not just blame games,” he emphasised.
“Door-to-door canvassing, micro-targeting based on community dynamics, and social media campaigns, Gujarati asmita (pride) should be widely used. BJP should activate and motivate the booth-level workers, “panna pramukhs,” and central leaders in large numbers for intensive campaigning for the coming election in 2027,” he concluded.
